Michael Reagan To Challenge Dianne Feinstein For Senate?

[Sandra]

Michael Reagan To Challenge Dianne Feinstein For Senate?
Source: [None]
URL Source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic/c/a/2011/09/16/MNJT1L533F.DTL
Published: Sep 16, 2011
Author: STAFF
 
 

Two years ago, two major Republican campaigns swarmed the California GOP fall convention, confident that they could drum up the support to beat three-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer, who was considered vulnerable because of her low voter-approval ratings.

This year, as 1,000 GOP activists gather today in Los Angeles for their fall convention, things are different, as even the California Republican Party chairman has no idea who will take on 19-year-incumbent Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein next year - and no major candidates have stepped up.

But the landscape may change soon, analysts said, given Feinstein's recent campaign money problems and a Field Poll released today that gives one of California's most consistently popular politicians a 41 percent approval rating, the lowest of her Senate career.

One person considering a run, The Chronicle has learned, is Michael Reagan, a former conservative talk-radio host and the son of former President Ronald Reagan.

Republicans may consider a challenge to Feinstein less foreboding after the survey of 1,001 registered voters found that 39 percent disapprove of Feinstein's performance and 20 percent have no opinion.

For the first time since being elected to the Senate in 1992, a plurality - 44 percent - of Field Poll respondents were "not inclined" to vote for her while 41 percent were. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

At the same point before each of her three previous re-election bids, at least 52 percent of Field Poll respondents were inclined to support her.

Voter frustration

When voters turn on politicians like Feinstein, who has enjoyed more bipartisan support over her career than most California politicians, "it just shows the depth of voter disgust with what's going on in Washington," Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said.

Voter disgust with Congress has reached its nadir in California: Only 9 percent of the Field Poll respondents approve of the job that Congress is doing - the first time in the 65-year history of the poll that voter approval of a legislative body has been in single digits, DiCamillo said.

"No question" that Feinstein is vulnerable, DiCamillo said.

Compounding Feinstein's problems is that her longtime campaign treasurer, Kinde Durkee, has been arrested on charges that she stole or misappropriated $670,000 from state Assemblyman Jose Solorio, D-Anaheim. Feinstein's $5.2 million re-election war chest may or may not be "wiped out," said her campaign consultant Bill Carrick.

Feinstein is "redoubling" her fundraising efforts, Carrick said, crisscrossing the country, holding more fundraisers. With her regular donor base of 25,000 contributors and half her donors in this campaign first-time givers, Feinstein will "be in good shape financially" no matter how the Durkee legal matter turns out, Carrick said.

Who will challenge her? Perhaps the biggest factor helping Feinstein now: She doesn't have an opponent. It's the first time Carrick hasn't heard of a potential opponent at this point in her re-election campaigns.

"I'm sort of an old-fashioned guy - to get beat you have to run somebody," Carrick said. State Republicans, he said. "have such a weak bench, there's no obvious person."

California Republican Party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro said he hasn't heard of anyone stepping up, but said, "I'm confident that someone will come forward soon." The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is wired into Senate candidacies nationwide, declined to comment on who might enter the race.

 

The window to jump in is closing soon. A candidate would have to announce by mid-November to stir interest before the end of the year, said Marty Wilson, who ran former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina's campaign against Boxer last year.

"People who were assuming that this was not a winnable race might want to take a second look at this now," Wilson said.

The "challenge with taking on Feinstein versus Boxer is that Feinstein has generally been better liked - even among Republicans," said Chuck DeVore, the former Orange County GOP assemblyman who lost to Fiorina in the 2010 GOP Senate primary.

One prominent possible candidate is Rep. David Dreier, R-San Dimas (Los Angeles County), who has served in Congress since 1981. After redistricting put him in a much more competitive district, several GOP insiders suggested he might run for Senate. Dreier had $753,262 cash on hand June 30, according to federal campaign finance reports.

"He's a great communicator, a prolific fundraiser and he's seen as reasonable - not someone out on the fringe," said Shawn Steel, the state's Republican national committeeman and past state party chair.

Representatives for Dreier did not respond to interview requests. Earlier this year, a Dreier spokesman told The Chronicle that he wasn't interested in challenging Feinstein.

Reagan for Senate

One Republican who is considering a run is Michael Reagan. "Yes," he said in an e-mail to The Chronicle Thursday, "but can't talk about it now." Reagan, who has never held public office, declined to respond to further questions.

While state Republicans wait for a Feinstein challenger to step up, her campaign doesn't know how her low approval ratings will affect the race.

"In the past, incumbents have always been able to separate themselves from that collective of negativity," Carrick said. "That's going to be a challenge this time.