November elections are NOT a sure thing for conservatives!

[PHILIP SCHNEIDER]

Republican fails even with backing from senator Brown, Newt Gingrich, and a million dollars from the RNC

Dems Win Special Pa. Election, Retain Murtha Seat

Tuesday, 18 May 2010 11:07 PM

An aide to the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha won a special election to
fill the final months of his boss's term — a nationally watched contest
considered a potential bellwether for this fall's midterm election.

In a tight race to the end, Mark Critz brushed back a strong challenge from Tim Burns, a Republican businessman. The GOP had hoped
to catch the seat Murtha held for 36 years by playing off growing
opposition to congressional Democrats, tea party-driven discontent and
unhappiness with President Barack Obama's health care law

Critz, a longtime district aide, played up his ties to his old boss while fending off GOP criticism that he was a career bureaucrat who
would blindly follow House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and liberal Democrats
in Congress.

He stressed he was "pro-life, pro-gun" and determined to help a region hard-hit by job losses — Pennsylvania's statewide unemployment
rate is 9 percent — policy positions that mirrored Murtha's. Democrats
had a 2-to-1 edge over Republicans in voter registration in the
socially conservative district.

Murtha, who was the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, died in February at age 77 of complications from
gallbladder surgery, setting off a dash to the special election.

Critz had 53 percent of the vote compared with nearly 45 percent for Burns with 70 percent of precincts reporting, dealing an early blow to
GOP hopes of taking control of Congress this fall.

Both candidates will square off again in the fall after each man easily won his respective party's primary. Burns' campaign has said the
Republican was in the race through November regardless of the special
election outcome.

The race was considered so close and so important that Democrats called on former President Bill Clinton to campaign for Critz, while
Republicans turned to U.S. Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts to boost
Burns. Vice President Joe Biden and former GOP House Speaker Newt
Gingrich were among other political notables who made campaign cameos.

But Burns, 42, of Eighty Four, could not follow the script Brown wrote earlier this year in Massachusetts. Brown won a special election
for the Senate seat held by another high-profile Democrat, the late
Edward M. Kennedy.

Each party poured in nearly $1 million for advertising, most of it negative. A tea party supporter, Burns disagreed with Critz's camp
painting the Republican as an "out-of-touch millionaire" more concerned
with tax loopholes for corporations and the rich.

Critz, 48, capitalized on a key endorsement from Murtha's widow, Joyce Murtha, and his ties to his hometown of Johnstown, a Murtha
stronghold. Numerous projects and buildings in the region bear Murtha's
name including a highway, an airport and a health care facility.

Recent voting trends also made the race unpredictable. Republican Sen. John McCain won the district in the 2008 presidential election
after Democratic Sen. John Kerry carried it four years earlier.

[Your Uncle Sam]

Voters rejected one of President Barack Obama's hand-picked candidates and forced another into a runoff, the latest sign that his political capital is slipping beneath a wave of anti-establishment anger.

Sen. Arlen Specter became the fourth Democrat in seven months to lose a high-profile race despite the president's active involvement, raising doubts about Obama's ability to help fellow Democrats in this November's elections.

The first three candidates fell to Republicans. But Specter's loss Tuesday to Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania's Democratic senatorial primary cast doubts on Obama's influence and popularity even within his own party — and in a battleground state, no less.

Of course, it's possible that Democrats will fare better than expected this fall. And there's only so much that any president can do to help other candidates, especially in a non-presidential election year.

Still, Obama's poor record thus far could hurt his legislative agenda if Democratic lawmakers decide they need some distance from him as they seek re-election in what is shaping up as a pro-Republican year. Conversely, it might embolden Republican lawmakers and candidates who oppose him.

"We're licking our chops at running against President Obama," said Rand Paul, tea party candidate and victor in Kentucky's Republican primary for retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning's seat. Paul told CNN on Wednesday he'd relish Obama's campaigning on behalf of Democrat Jack Conway. Obama's agenda, Paul said, is "so far to the left, he's not popular in Kentucky."

Obama's track record also raises the question of whether he may be hurting candidates he supports by motivating his foes — such as tea party supporters — to vote. Though this month's AP-GfK Poll shows Americans split about evenly over how he's handling his job, those strongly disapproving outnumber people who strongly back him by 33 percent to 22 percent — not an enviable position for the president's party.

Sestak's victory over Specter is especially embarrassing, because he won by portraying himself and his supporters as being more faithful to the Democratic Party than were Specter and his backers — who included the president, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell and other high-ranking party officials.

Creating another bruise for Obama and the Democratic establishment Tuesday, Sen. Blanche Lincoln was forced into a runoff in Arkansas' Democratic senatorial primary. Obama supports her bid for a third term, but he is not as closely associated with her campaign as he was with Specter's.

In previous months, Obama's endorsements and campaign appearances weren't enough to save then-Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election bid in New Jersey, Creigh Deeds' run for governor in Virginia or Martha Coakley's campaign in Massachusetts to keep the late Edward M. Kennedy's Senate seat in Democratic hands.

In fairness, Deeds was an underdog from the start, and Corzine brought many problems on himself. But the Coakley loss to Republican Scott Brown was excruciating. She once was considered a shoo-in, and her defeat restored the Republicans' ability to block Democratic bills with Senate filibusters.

Unlike the Corzine, Deeds and Coakley races, Obama made no late-campaign appearances for Specter. But it will be hard for the president to distance himself from Specter's career-ending loss.

Obama campaigned for Specter last September in Philadelphia, where he said, "I love Arlen Specter." Specter used the clip in recent TV ads. Obama also e-mailed his supporters on Specter's behalf, and he was the first person Specter thanked in his concession speech.

Vice President Joe Biden, a Pennsylvania native, made several appearances for Specter. Last week he told a Pittsburgh radio station, "Arlen is the Democratic candidate."

Moreover, Obama was central to an all-important deal with Specter that struck some Democratic voters as opportunistic at best.

Specter had been a Republican senator for 28 years, opposing countless Democratic bills and appointees even if he showed more independence than most lawmakers. Thirteen months ago, however, he concluded he could not win the GOP nomination for a sixth term against conservative Pat Toomey. He and top Democrats struck a deal.

Specter would become a Democrat, giving the party the crucial 60th Senate vote it needed to overcome Republican filibusters, which were frustrating the administration. In exchange, Obama, Biden, Rendell and the entire Democratic hierarchy agreed to support Specter's 2010 re-election, including efforts to clear his way to the party's nomination.

The losers in the deal were any longtime Democrats who aspired to the U.S. Senate. They essentially were told to step aside for an 80-year-old longtime Republican. Pennsylvania's Democratic voters were asked to concur.

Sestak, a former Navy vice admiral first elected to the House in 2006, refused to go along. He plugged away without help from the state or national party. A few weeks ago he trailed Specter by about 20 percentage points in polls of likely Democratic voters.

But Sestak caught fire in the closing days, partly through a TV ad showing Specter campaigning enthusiastically with then-President George W. Bush, who remains deeply unpopular with many Democratic primary voters.

In the past few weeks, the White House has played down Obama's role in the Tuesday primaries, and he spent Election Day in Ohio talking about the economy.

"At some point, you feel like we've done what we can do," senior White House adviser David Axelrod told The Associated Press in an interview. "We do have other stuff going on," he said.

Matt Bennett, a Democratic strategist and vice president of the group Third Way, said he doubts that Democratic lawmakers will panic over Obama's inability to help Specter to a victory.

"Presidents have coattails when their names are on the ballot," Bennett said, and that can't happen for Obama until 2012.