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Rise of the Rust Belt Republicans

By James Hohmann and Jake Sherman POLITICO 11/21/14 7:29 PM EST Updated 11/22/14 9:20 AM EST

`Are these governors the GOP’s antidote to the party of the 1 percent?

BOCA RATON, Fla.—Gov. Scott Walker, a rabid Wisconsin Badgers fan, likes to razz Gov. John Kasich about his Ohio State Buckeyes.

“We’re hoping to be against each other in the Big 10 championship in a couple weeks,” he said during a panel discussion at the Republican Governors Association meeting here this week.

Forget football. A real battle of Midwest heavyweights might be looming next year in the Republican Party between Walker, Kasich, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence and Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder.

The four heartland governors are all considering bids for the GOP presidential nomination, looking to run as Rust Belt success stories who can revive the party’s Reagan Democrat coalition and speak to the middle class in a way Mitt Romney could not. And Republicans looking to shed the image as the party of the 1 percent say a Midwestern state executive who’s created jobs and balanced budgets might be just what the GOP needs.

But as the four men worked the crowd at this year’s RGA meeting, their differences were as apparent as their similarities. Each governor would bring his own blend of conservatism to the 2016 race.

Walker has commanded attention for taking on entrenched liberal interests and scoring conservative victories in a swing state without sacrificing his principles. Kasich is the pragmatic deal-maker who’s open, for one, to granting citizenship to undocumented immigrants. Snyder is known as a technocrat with financial savvy, and Pence’s admirers say he is the true conservative best-positioned to bridge the GOP’s establishment-tea party divide.

Each began to sketch the outlines of a 2016 candidacy at this week’s governors gathering at the posh Boca Raton Resort and Country Club.

“Strong leadership, combined with Midwestern nice, there’s just a certain appeal to that,” Walker said.

But there’s also a base political calculation that Republican voters need to make, he added.

“You look at the Electoral College map and what’s required to win. A good chunk of that runs through the Midwest,” Walker said. “There’s Florida, Virginia, out West — Colorado, Nevada – maybe New Hampshire depending on the year – but really most of the rest of the map is Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa. It’s all kind of right there. At least in recent political history, that’s kind of where it happens.”

Some are more likely than others to jump in. Walker is almost certain to announce next summer after his state’s legislative session wraps up. Kasich, who briefly sought the presidential nomination in 2000, would love the job but appears less eager to endure the rigors of another national campaign. Pence has flirted with a White House bid in the past and is said to be waiting to see how the GOP field takes shape before he decides. Snyder appears the least likely to get in.

Any of the four could also be in the mix of the vice presidential sweepstakes.

“It’s not geography for geography’s sake,” said former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who sought the GOP nomination in 2012. “Geography is more of a proxy for personality and roots and background. Who you are depends in part on where you’re from.”

One real risk is that multiple contenders from Big 10 states would crowd each other out, dividing donors and supporters to the benefit of a senator or governor from somewhere else. But, publicly, the would-be candidates dismiss such concerns.

“There’s gonna be so many people in this field,” said Walker. “At the RGA here, the question isn’t who’s running. It’s easier to count who might not be running.”

Walker, 47, won national attention after beating back a labor-led 2012 recall attempt. He has pushed through a series of big-ticket bills, including requiring women to get ultrasounds before they have abortions and paving the way for more mining in the state. He’s now preparing a legislative agenda that includes mandating drug tests for welfare beneficiaries, repealing the Common Core education standards and cutting property taxes.

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Kasich, 62, served two decades in the House, rising to chairman of the Budget Committee in the 1990s. Like Walker, he has clashed with labor, signing a bill in 2011 that limited union power before voters overturned it via referendum.

His willingness to speak bluntly and challenge the conservative wing of the party could make him a national media darling of 2016, a position New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie held until the “Bridgegate” traffic scandal. At the RGA, Kasich made news when he said Republicans should be open to a path to citizenship.

“You gotta be careful with the (immigration) rhetoric, because you get too far out on that, and people do,” Kasich said. “You’re going to have to make some compromises.”

Walker and Pence have taken a harder line on immigration. At the conference, Pence talked about suing the Obama administration over the president’s immigration executive order this week and suggested that Republicans in Congress use the budget process to block it.

Expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare is another fault line.

Kasich and Snyder defend their moves to boost their states’ share of federal funding under Obamacare, while Walker flatly refused to do so. Pence has taken a middle ground, opposing the expansion but seeking a state-based alternative.

After taking office two years ago, Pence, 55, passed the largest tax cut in Indiana history. The former talk radio host also served in the House, rising to No. 3 in GOP leadership. He’s now looking to rack up accomplishments during the state legislative session early next year, including on school vouchers.

And on Common Core, the federal education standards, Snyder and Kasich have defended the program, while Pence withdrew Indiana from it in March, and Walker plans to repeal the standards in an upcoming legislative session.

Pence believes the emerging Republican field is unimpressive, according to close associates, and that there’s a good chance of an opening for him come mid-2015.

Snyder, 56, is the wealthy former chairman of Gateway Computer with moderate tendencies. He is visibly uncomfortable talking about social issues and signed right-to-work legislation only after the GOP legislature passed it.

Tellingly, he made only a quick stop the RGA meeting — a prime opportunity to showcase his interest in 2016 with donors and the press — before heading to China on an official visit.

Republicans have nominated several Midwesterners for vice president, but the last time the party nominated a governor from the region for president was in 1936, when Kansas Gov. Alf Landon lost to Franklin Roosevelt.

Pawlenty said the potential 2016 foursome’s success in politically divided states could break that spell.

“If you’re trying to advance conservative messages in purple and blue places,” he said, “that takes another level of awareness, skill and effectiveness.”